💥1 概述
该项目为能源消耗的时间序列预测，在Matlab中实现。该预测采用多层人工神经网络，基于Kaggle训练集预测未来能源消耗。
📚2 运行结果
🎉3 参考文献
[1]程静,郑定成,吴继权.基于时间序列ARMA模型的广东省能源需求预测[J].能源工程,2010(01):1-5.DOI:10.16189/j.cnki.nygc.2010.01.012.
👨💻4 Matlab代码
seed = 52 rng(seed); % Seeds the random number generator using the nonnegative integer seed % Load the data load lasertrain.dat load laserpred.dat clear net close all p = 18; % Lag n = 4; % Difference between the inputs and the number of neurons [TrainData, TrainTarget] = getTimeSeriesTrainData(lasertrain, p); % This creates TrainData and TrainTarget, such as divided in time intervales of 5. TrainData(:,1) -> TrainTarget(1). R5 --> R1 % Create the ANN numN = p - n; % Number of neurons in the hidden layer numE = 200; % Number of epochs trainAlg = 'trainlm'; % Training Algorithm transFun = 'tansig'; % Transfer Function net = feedforwardnet(numN, trainAlg); % Create general feedforward netowrk net.trainParam.epochs = numE; % Set the number of epochs for the training net.layers{1}.transferFcn = transFun; % Set the Transfer Function % net.divideParam.trainRatio = 0.8; % net.divideParam.valRatio = 0.2; % net.divideParam.testRatio = 0; P = TrainData; T = TrainTarget; net = train(net,P,T); TotMat = [lasertrain ; zeros(size(laserpred))]; for j = 1:length(laserpred) r = length(lasertrain) - p + j; P = TotMat(r:r+p-1); a = sim(net,P); TotMat(length(lasertrain) + j) = a; % TotMat(length(lasertrain) + j) = (abs(round(a))+round(a))/2; end err = immse(TotMat(length(lasertrain)+1:end),laserpred); x = linspace(1,length(TotMat),length(TotMat)); figure subplot(3,1,2) plot(x(1:length(lasertrain)), TotMat(1:length(lasertrain)),'r', x(length(lasertrain)+1:end), TotMat(length(lasertrain)+1:end),'g', x(length(lasertrain)+1:end), laserpred','b'); xlim([1 1100]) title('Real set and forecast set'); legend('Training Data','Forecasted Data', 'Test data'); subplot(3,1,1) plot(x(1:length(lasertrain)), TotMat(1:length(lasertrain)),'r', x(length(lasertrain):end), TotMat(length(lasertrain):end),'g'); xlim([1 1100]) title('Forecasted set'); legend('Training Data','Forecasted Data'); subplot(3,1,3) plot(x(length(lasertrain)+1:end), TotMat(length(lasertrain)+1:end),'g', x(length(lasertrain)+1:end), laserpred','b'); xlim([1000 1100]) title('Detailed forcast data vs Test data'); legend('Forecasted Data', 'Test data'); formatSpec = 'The mean squared error is %4.2f \n'; fprintf(formatSpec, err)
主函数部分代码：
%% Exercise 2 - Recurrent Neural Networks %% Initial stuff clc clearvars close all %% 1 - Hopfield Network % Note: for this exercise, it will be interesting to check what happens if % you add more neurons, i.e. modify T such as N is bigger. T = [1 1; -1 -1; 1 -1]'; % N x Q matrix containing Q vectors with components equal to +- 1. % 2-neuron network with 3 atactors net = newhop(T); % Create a recurrent HOpfield network with stable points being the vectors from T A1 = [0.3 0.6; -0.1 0.8; -1 0.5]'; % Example inputs A2 = [-1 0.5 ; -0.5 0.1 ; -1 -1 ]'; A3 = [1 0.5 ; -0.3 -0.4 ; 0.8 -0.6]'; A4 = [0 -0.1 ; 0.1 0 ; -0.5 0.1]'; A5 = [0 0 ; 0 0.1 ; -0.1 0 ]'; A0 = [1 1; -1 -1; 1 -1]'; % Simulate a Hopfield network % Y_1 = net([],[],Ai); % Single step iteration num_step = 20; % Number of steps Y_1 = net({num_step},{},A1); % Multiple step iteration Y_2 = net({num_step},{},A2); Y_3 = net({num_step},{},A3); Y_4 = net({num_step},{},A4); Y_5 = net({num_step},{},A5); %% Now we try with 4 Neurons T_ = [1 1 1 1; -1 -1 1 -1; 1 -1 1 1]'; % N x Q matrix containing Q vectors with components equal to +- 1. % 4-neuron network with 3 atactors net_ = newhop(T_); % Create a recurrent HOpfield network with stable points being the vectors from T A1_ = [0.3 0.6 0.3 0.6; -0.1 0.8 -0.1 0.8; -1 0.5 -1 0.5]'; % Example inputs A2_ = [-1 0.2 -1 0.2 ; -0.5 0.1 -0.5 0.1 ; -1 -1 -1 -1 ]'; A3_ = [1 0.5 1 0.5 ; -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 ; 0.8 -0.6 0.8 -0.6]'; A4_ = [-0.5 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 ; 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.8 ; -0.7 0.6 -0.7 0.6]'; % Simulate a Hopfield network % Y_1 = net([],[],Ai); % Single step iteration num_step_ = 40; % Number of steps Y_1_ = net_({num_step_},{},A1_); % Multiple step iteration Y_2_ = net_({num_step_},{},A2_); Y_3_ = net_({num_step_},{},A3_); Y_4_ = net_({num_step_},{},A4_); %% Execute rep2.m || A script which generates n random initial points and visualises results of simulation of a 2d Hopfield network 'net' % Note: The idea is to understand what is the relation between symmetry and % attractors. It does not make sense that appears a fourth attractor when % only 3 are in the Target T close all
