Gartner作为全球最具权威的咨询公司发布了2012年最具潜力的手机应用领域，分别是转账、LBS、移动搜索、移动浏览、移动健康监视、移动支付、近场通讯服务、移动广告、移动即时信息和移动音乐。
原文如下：
Gartner Identifies the Top 10 Consumer MobileApplications for 2012
STAMFORD, Conn.,November 18, 2009— Gartner, Inc. has identified the top 10 consumer mobileapplications for 2012. Gartner listed applications based on their impact onconsumers and industry players, considering revenue, loyalty, business model,consumer value and estimated market penetration.
“Consumer mobile applications and services are no longer the prerogative ofmobile carriers,” said Sandy Shen, research director at Gartner. “Theincreasing consumer interest in smartphones, the participation of Internetplayers in the mobile space, and the emergence of application stores andcross-industry services are reducing the dominance of mobile carriers. Eachplayer will influence how the application is delivered and experienced byconsumers, who ultimately vote with their attention and spending power.”
“The ultimate competition between industry players is for control of the‘ecosystem’ and user experience, and the owner of the ecosystem will benefitthe most in terms of revenue and user loyalty,” Ms. Shen said. “We predict thatmost users will use no more than five mobile applications at a time and mostfuture opportunities will come from niche market ‘killer applications’.”
The top 10 consumer mobile applications in 2012 will include:
No. 1: Money Transfer
This service allows people to send money to others using Short MessageService (SMS). Its lower costs, faster speed and convenience compared withtraditional transfer services have strong appeal to users in developingmarkets, and most services signed up several million users within their firstyear. However, challenges do exist in both regulatory and operational risks.Because of the fast growth of mobile money transfer, regulators in many marketsare piling in to investigate the impact on consumer costs, security, fraud andmoney laundering. On the operational side, market conditions vary, as do thelocal resources of service providers, so providers need different marketstrategies when entering a new territory.
No. 2: Location-Based Services
Location-based services (LBS) form part of context-aware services, aservice that Gartner expects will be one of the most disruptive in the next fewyears. Gartner predicts that the LBS user base will grow globally from 96million in 2009 to more than 526 million in 2012. LBS is ranked No. 2 inGartner’s top 10 because of its perceived high user value and its influence onuser loyalty. Its high user value is the result of its ability to meet a rangeof needs, ranging from productivity and goal fulfillment to social networkingand entertainment.
No. 3: Mobile Search
The ultimate purpose of mobile search is to drive sales and marketingopportunities on the mobile phone. To achieve this, the industry first needs toimprove the user experience of mobile search so that people will come backagain. Mobile search is ranked No. 3 because of its high impact on technologyinnovation and industry revenue. Consumers will stay loyal to some searchservices, but instead of sticking to one or two search providers on theInternet, Gartner expects loyalty on the mobile phone to be shared between afew search providers that have unique technologies for mobile search.
No. 4: Mobile Browsing
Mobile browsing is a widely available technology present on more than 60percent of handsets shipped in 2009, a percentage Gartner expects to rise toapproximately 80 percent in 2013. Gartner has ranked mobile browsing No. 4because of its broad appeal to all businesses. Mobile Web systems have thepotential to offer a good return on investment. They involve much lowerdevelopment costs than native code, reuse many existing skills and tools, andcan be agile — both delivered and updated quickly. Therefore, the mobile Webwill be a key part of most corporate business-to-consumer (B2C) mobilestrategies.
No. 5: Mobile Health Monitoring
Mobile health monitoring is the use of IT and mobile telecommunications tomonitor patients remotely, and could help governments, care delivery organizations(CDOs) and healthcare payers reduce costs related to chronic diseases andimprove the quality of life of their patients. In developing markets, themobility aspect is key as mobile network coverage is superior to fixed networkin the majority of developing countries. Currently, mobile health monitoring isat an early stage of market maturity and implementation, and project rolloutshave so far been limited to pilot projects. In the future, the industry will beable to monetize the service by offering mobile healthcare monitoring products,services and solutions to CDOs.
No. 6: Mobile Payment
Mobile payment usually serves three purposes. First, it is a way of makingpayment when few alternatives are available. Second, it is an extension ofonline payment for easy access and convenience. Third, it is an additionalfactor of authentication for enhanced security. Mobile payment made Gartner’stop 10 list because of the number of parties it affects — including mobilecarriers, banks, merchants, device vendors, regulators and consumers — and therising interest from both developing and developed markets. Because of the manychoices of technologies and business models, as well as regulatory requirementsand local conditions, mobile payment will be a highly fragmented market. Therewill not be standard practices of deployment, so parties will need to find aworking solution on a case-by-case basis.
No. 7: Near Field Communication Services
Near field communication (NFC)allows contactless data transfer between compatible devices by placing themclose to each other, within ten centimeters. The technology can be used, forexample, for retail purchases, transportation, personal identification andloyalty cards. NFC is ranked No. 7 in Gartner’s top ten because it can increase user loyalty for all service providers,and it will have a big impact on carriers' business models. However, itsbiggest challenge is reaching business agreement between mobile carriers andservice providers, such as banks and transportation companies. Gartner expectsto see large-scale deployments starting from late 2010, when NFC phones arelikely to ship in volume, with Asia leading deployments followed by Europe andNorth America.
No. 8: Mobile Advertising
Mobile advertising in all regions is continuing togrow through the economic downturn, driven by interest from advertisers in thisnew opportunity and by the increased use of smartphones and the wirelessInternet. Total spending on mobile advertising in 2008 was $530.2 million,which Gartner expects to will grow to $7.5 billion in 2012. Mobile advertisingmakes the top 10 list because it will be an important way to monetize contenton the mobile Internet, offering free applications and services to end users.The mobile channel will be used as part of larger advertising campaigns invarious media, including TV, radio, print and outdoors.
No. 9: Mobile Instant Messaging
Price and usability problems have historically held back adoption of mobileinstant messaging (IM), while commercial barriers and uncertain business modelshave precluded widespread carrier deployment and promotion. Mobile IM is onGartner’s top 10 list because of latent user demand and market conditions thatare conducive to its future adoption. It has a particular appeal to users indeveloping markets that may rely on mobile phones as their only connectivitydevice. Mobile IM presents an opportunity for mobile advertising and socialnetworking, which have been built into some of the more advanced mobile IMclients.
No. 10: Mobile Music
Mobile music so far has been disappointing — except for ring tones andring-back tones, which have turned into a multibillion-dollar service. On theother hand, it is unfair to dismiss the value of mobile music, as consumerswant music on their phones and to carry it around. We see efforts by variousplayers in coming up with innovative models, such as device or service bundles,to address pricing and usability issues. iTunes makes people pay for music,which shows that a superior user experience does make a difference.
