# 2018 数学建模 美国赛 D 建模思路 和文章大纲

## 题目

### Problem D: Out of Gas and Driving on E (for electric, not empty)

For both environmental and economic reasons, there is global interest in reducing the use of fossil fuels, including gasoline for cars. Whether motivated by the environment or by the economics, consumers are starting to migrate to electric vehicles. Several countries are seeing early signs of the potential for rapid growth in the adoption of electric vehicles. In the US and other countries, the release of the more affordable all-electric Tesla Model 3 has resulted in record numbers of pre-orders and long wait lists (https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-model-3-delivery-timeline/). To further accelerate the switch to electric vehicles, some countries, including China, have announced that they will ban gasoline and diesel cars in the coming years (http://money.cnn.com/2017/09/11/news/china-gaselectric-car-ban/index.html).

Eventually, when a ban goes into effect, there needs to be a sufficient number of vehicle charging stations in all the right places so that people can use their vehicles for their daily business, as well as make occasional long-distance trips. The migration from gasoline and diesel cars to electric vehicles, however, is not simple and can’t happen overnight. In a fantasy world, we would wake up one day with every gas vehicle replaced by an electric one, and every gas station replaced with a charging station. In reality, there are limited resources, and it will take time for consumers to make the switch.

In fact, the location and convenience of charging stations is critical as early adopters and eventually
mainstream consumers volunteer to switch http://www.govtech.com/fs/Building-Out-Electric-Vehicle-Infrastructure-Where-Are-the-Best-Locations-for-Charging-Stations.html). As nations plan this transition, they need to consider the final network of charging stations (the number of stations, where they will be located, the number of chargers at the stations, and the differences in the needs of rural areas, suburban areas, and urban areas), as well as the growth and evolution of the network of charging stations over time. For example, what should the network look like when electric vehicles represent 10% of all cars, 30% of all cars, 50% of all cars, and 90% of all cars?

As nations seek to develop policies that promote the migration towards electric vehicles, they will need to design a plan that works best for their individual country. Before they can begin, they would like your team’s help in determining the final architecture of the charging network to support the full adoption of all-electric vehicles. Additionally, they would like you to identify the key factors that will be important as they plan their timeline for an eventual ban or dramatic reduction of gasoline and diesel vehicles.

To help your team manage the scope of this problem, we ask that you focus only on personal passenger vehicles (i.e. cars, vans, and light trucks used for passengers). At the end of your report, you may briefly comment on the relevance of your findings and conclusions on commercial vehicles to include heavy trucks and busses.

Explore the current and growing network of Tesla charging stations in the United States. Tesla currently offers two types of charging stations: (1) destination charging designed for charging for several hours at a time or even overnight (https://www.tesla.com/destination-charging); and (2) supercharging designed for longer road trips to provide up to 170 miles of range in as little as 30 minutes of charging (https://www.tesla.com/supercharger). These stations are in addition to at-home charging used by many Tesla owners who have a personal garage or a driveway with power. Is Tesla on track to allow a complete switch to all-electric in the US? If everyone switched to all-electric personal passenger vehicles in the US, how many charging stations would be needed, and how should
they be distributed between urban, suburban, and rural areas?

Select one of the following nations (South Korea, Ireland, or Uruguay).

2a. Determine the optimal number, placement, and distribution of charging stations if your country could migrate all their personal passenger vehicles to all-electric vehicles instantaneously (no transition time required). What are the key factors that shaped the development of your plan?

2b. While these countries have already started installing chargers, you get to start with a clean slate. Present a proposal for evolving the charging network of your chosen country from zero chargers to a full electric-vehicle system. How do you propose the country invest in chargers? Should the country build all city-based chargers first, or all rural chargers, or a mix of both? Will you build the chargers first and hope people buy the cars, or will you build chargers in response to car purchases? What are the key factors that shaped your proposed charging station plan?

2c. Based on your growth plan, what is the timeline you propose for the full evolution to electric vehicles in your country? To get started, you may wish to consider how long it will take for there to be 10% electric vehicles, 30% electric vehicles, 50% electric vehicles, or 100% electric vehicles on your selected country’s roads. What are the key factors that shaped your proposed growth plan timeline?

Now consider countries with very different geographies, population density distributions, and wealth distributions, such as Australia, China, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and Singapore. Would your proposed plan for growing and evolving the network of chargers still apply to each of these countries? What are the key factors that trigger the selection of different approaches to growing the network? Discuss the feasibility of creating a classification system that would help a nation determine the general growth model they should follow in order for them to successfully migrate away from gasoline and diesel vehicles to all electric cars.

The technological world continues to change and is impacting transportation options such as car-share and ride-share services, self-driving cars, rapid battery-swap stations for electric cars, and even flying cars and a Hyperloop. Comment on how these technologies might impact your analyses of the increasing use of electric vehicles.

Prepare a one-page handout written for the leaders of a wide range of countries who are attending an international energy summit. The handout should identify the key factors the leaders should consider as they return to their home country to develop a national plan to migrate personal transportation towards all-electric cars and set a gas vehicle-ban date. Your submission should consist of:

• One-page Summary Sheet,
• One-page handout,
• Your solution of no more than 20 pages, for a maximum of 22 pages with your summary and handout.
• Note: Reference list and any appendices do not count toward the 22-page limit and should appear after your completed solution.

## 题目翻译

#### 任务1：

（1）目的地充电设计为一次或甚至一夜充电数小时（https://www.tesla.com/destination-charging）;
（2）增压设计用于长途旅行，在短短30分钟的充电时间内提供170英里的行驶里程的电力（https://www.tesla.com/supercharger）。

#### 任务2：

2A。确定充电站的最佳数量，布局和分布，如果您的国家可以将所有个人乘用车瞬间迁移到全电动汽车（不需要过渡时间）。影响你计划发展的关键因素是什么？

2B。当这些国家已经开始安装充电器的时候，你可以从0开始构建。提出将您所选择的国家的充电网络从零充电器发展到全电动车系统的建议。你将如何提出建议使得该国投资于充电器？该国是否应该首先建立所有城市的充电器，或者所有的农村充电器，还是两者兼而有之？你会先建立充电器，并希望人们购买汽车，还是你会看应付汽车购买的情况来建立充电站？你建议的充电站部署计划的关键因素是什么？ 计划？

2C。根据你的发展计划，你提出的在你的国家电动汽车全面发展的时间表是什么？您可能需要考虑在您选定的国家道路上需要多长时间才能有10％的电动汽车，30％的电动汽车，50％的电动汽车或100％的电动汽车。什么是影响您提出的增长计划时间表的关键因素？

#### 您的提交应该包括：

• 单页讲义材料，
• 您的解决方案不超过20页，最多22页，包括摘要和讲义。
• 注意：参考列表和任何附录不计入22页的限制，应该在完成解决方案后出现。

美国是否应该允许完整的电动车车道

1如果做到了电动车的全覆盖，我们需要多少充电桩，如何分配（农村，城市，还是混合）并且问，什么因素是分配的关键的因素

2如何从零开始一步步的建设充电桩（经济问题）

3如何考虑建设的优先级

set a gas vehicle-ban date 设定一个合理的禁止汽油车的时间表

1.充电站的规划方法

2.不同国家差异，如何对规划产生影响

3.如何一步一步的建立充电站网络

4.共享汽车，自动驾驶如何影响充电站的建立

5.是通过建立充电装置来吸引人们还是通过，法律来规定，如何制定法律强制转向电动车

使用聚类方法，对区域进行数据降维

参考文献1.pdf

建立规划模型

目标函数：

考虑充电桩的效果最好，就是服务能力最大

或者考虑资源最节约（不建议，因为题目中对资源的讨论比较少，更着重充电效果）

约束条件：

资源约束

空间约束

环保约束

环境约束

电动车种类

私家车，货车，轻卡车，共享汽车，智能驾驶车

。。。可以另外添加

规划变量

在不同的区域，设置充电桩的数量和种类

参考文献2.pdf

使用，要求国家和地区的，人口，经纬度，对电动车的支持情况，经济情况，

美国统计局
https://www.census.gov/data.html

美国交通统计局

http://www.inegi.org.mx/default.aspx

美国劳工统计局
https://stats.bls.gov/

使用求解工具

Lingo

Matlab

AMPLE

不建议使用启发式算法，

编程复杂

解决线性问题，没有必要

分析1

对我们的约束条件，进行敏感性分析

分析建立充电站的重要的因素

解决问题2

对充电器车保有量和资金约束进行敏感性分析

分析如何一步步建立充电桩网络

解决问题3

对电车的种类进行分析

分析，引入智能驾驶和共享汽车的影响

解决问题4

abstract

Introduction

1. 介绍电动车的环境背景
2. 介绍充电桩存在的分配问题，或者介绍分配不合理带来的后果
3. 可以有一张插图
4. 介绍下充电桩问题的复杂性

1. 这部分大概可以写一页半，最多两页

analysis of problem

1.充电站的规划方法

2.不同国家差异，如何对规划产生影响

3.如何一步一步的建立充电站网络

4.共享汽车，自动驾驶如何影响充电站的建立

5.是通过建立充电装置来吸引人们还是通过，法律来规定，如何制定法律强

symnols agreement

model

stability and sensitivity analysis

strengths and weeknesses of the model

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