BASS扩散模型
BASS扩散模型三个参数：＃最终购买产品的总人数，m; 创新系数p; 和＃系数的模仿，
q# exampleT79<-1:10Tdelt<-(1:100)/10Sales<-c(840,1470,2110,4000,7590,10950,10530,9470,7790,5890)Cusales<-cumsum(Sales)Bass.nls<-nls(Sales~M*(((P+Q)^2/P)*exp(-(P+Q)*T79))/(1+(Q/P)*exp(-(P+Q)*T79))^2,start=list(M=60630,P=0.03,Q=0.38))summary(Bass.nls) ## ## Formula: Sales ~ M * (((P + Q)^2/P) * exp(-(P + Q) * T79))/(1 + (Q/P) * ## exp(-(P + Q) * T79))^2 ## ## Parameters: ## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) ## M 6.80e+04 3.13e+03 21.74 1.1e-07 *** ## P 6.59e-03 1.43e-03 4.61 0.0025 ** ## Q 6.38e-01 4.14e-02 15.41 1.2e-06 *** ## --- ## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 ## ## Residual standard error: 727 on 7 degrees of freedom ## ## Number of iterations to convergence: 8 ## Achieved convergence tolerance: 7.32e-06 # get coefficient Bcoef <- coef(Bass.nls) m <- Bcoef[1] p <- Bcoef[2] q <- Bcoef[3]
＃将M的起始值设置为记录的总销售额。
ngete <- exp(-(p + q) * Tdelt) # plot pdf Bpdf <- m * ((p + q)^2/p) * ngete/(1 + (q/p) * ngete)^2 plot(Tdelt, Bpdf, xlab = "Year from 1979", ylab = "Sales per year", type = "l") points(T79, Sales)
# plot cdfBcdf <- m * (1 - ngete)/(1 + (q/p) * ngete)plot(Tdelt, Bcdf, xlab = "Year from 1979", ylab = "Cumulative sales", type = "l")points(T79, Cusales)
＃当q = 0时，只有创新者没有模仿者。 Ipdf <- m * ((p + 0)^2/p) * exp(-(p + 0) * Tdelt)/(1 + (0/p) * exp(-(p + 0) * Tdelt))^2# plot(Tdelt, Ipdf, xlab = 'Year from 1979',ylab = 'Isales per year',# type='l')Impdf <- Bpdf - Ipdfplot(Tdelt, Bpdf, xlab = "Year from 1979", ylab = "Sales per year", type = "l", col = "red")lines(Tdelt, Impdf, col = "green")lines(Tdelt, Ipdf, col = "blue")
＃当q = 0时 Icdf <- m * (1 - exp(-(p + 0) * Tdelt))/(1 + (0/p) * exp(-(p + 0) * Tdelt)) # plot(Tdelt, Icdf, xlab = 'Year from 1979',ylab = 'ICumulative sales', # type='l') Imcdf <- m * (1 - ngete)/(1 + (q/p) * ngete) - Icdf plot(Tdelt, Imcdf, xlab = "Year from 1979", ylab = "Cumulative sales", type = "l", col = "red") lines(Tdelt, Bcdf, col = "green") lines(Tdelt, Icdf, col = "blue")
