背景
巴菲特的投资理念是什么? 长线定投
- 长期定投不是投机倒靶, 长期定投是有社会价值的, 可以帮助上市公司筹集资金, 加大研发投入和生产. 投资人则在这中间获取企业业务发展带来的红利.
长线定投赚钱背后的逻辑(理论依据)是什么呢?
- 1、首先是代际转移理论: 资源(生产资料、生产力)有限, 但是我们整个社区都假设并坚信通过未来的科技进步将获得更高的资源利用能力、生产效率; 例如石油、煤炭的过度开采虽然会造成环境破坏, 但是我们相信未来的科技进步会找到新的能源, 并填补过度开采造成的破坏. (这点和递弱代偿理论异曲同工)。
- 2、第二个是经济周期, 以及宏观调控手段, 维持适度的通胀, 有利于经济的发展. 需要刺激经济的时候通常会有降低央行准备金率, 让商业银行可以贷出去更多钱, 可能引起通胀. (货币总量增加. 参考阅读:金融简史.). 但是有些国计民生相关商品并不是完全市场化的, 所以这些商品通胀率比较可控, 否则会引发动乱.
- 银行放水时也需要有法律法规和相关监管配合, 防止投机倒把贷一堆钱去炒作钱滚钱. 失去了放水的意义. 放水可能希望的是去消费、投入研发或采购生产资料、促进生产....
- 3、第三是数学支撑: 微笑曲线
- 4、严格的止盈线.
有了理论支撑, 本文将使用真实数据以及PolarDB来证明巴菲特的投资理念.
证明过程
1、下载数据
巴菲特推荐的是投资指数, 因为指数是由大量头部或者行业头部或者规模相似的数十或数百只股票构成, 因此比投资单只股票风险(单只股票可能经营不善而下市)更低.
本文使用股票来证明, 以茅台为例, 巴菲特的理念同时适合股票和指数.
取2001年开始茅台的数据为例:
下载2001年到202209的茅台的历史收盘价数据:
https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/65662875
curl "http://quotes.money.163.com/service/chddata.html?code=0600519&start=20010101&end=20220901&fields=TOPEN;TCLOSE" -o ./historical_tradedata_0600519.SH.csv
转换处理一下编码的问题:
$ iconv -f GBK -t UTF-8 ./historical_tradedata_0600519.SH.csv > ./1.csv $ head -n 5 1.csv 日期,股票代码,名称,开盘价,收盘价 2022-09-01,'600519,贵州茅台,1912.15,1880.89 2022-08-31,'600519,贵州茅台,1860.1,1924.0 2022-08-30,'600519,贵州茅台,1882.35,1870.0 2022-08-29,'600519,贵州茅台,1883.0,1878.82 ...
2、导入到PolarDB for PostgreSQL. (如果你没有安装, 可以参考文末一键安装PolarDB.)
psql -h 127.0.0.1 postgres=# drop table his; DROP TABLE postgres=# create table his (c1 date, c2 text, c3 text, c4 numeric, c5 numeric); CREATE TABLE postgres=# postgres=# copy his from '/home/postgres/1.csv' ( format csv, HEADER , quote '"'); COPY 5101 postgres=# delete from his where c4=0 or c5=0; DELETE 74 postgres=# create index idx_his_1 on his(c1); CREATE INDEX
3、分析结果
假设你从2014-10-01开始投入, 每个交易日投入500元.
你可以随意选择投入开始日期(建议选择一个较长的时间窗口, 证明跨过了一个周期), 经济越低迷的时候股价越低, 从那时开始投入是比较好的. 走低不用怕, 周期过去后总会上来的. (不经历风雨, 怎么见彩虹?)
如果你的投入周期足够长, 可以从任意时间开始投入, 总会遇到可以收割的时候.
SQL 如下:
select c1, -- 日期 price, -- 当前价 round(cost_avg,4), -- 成本价 round(100 * ((price-cost_avg)/cost_avg) / ((c1-start_c1+1)/365.0), 2) as revenue_year_ratio, -- 年化收益率 rn * 500 as invest, -- 截止当前总投入. (假设每个交易日投入500) round(rn * 500 * (1+ (price-cost_avg)/cost_avg ), 2) as v_value, -- 当前持有股票的价值 round(rn * 500 * (1+ (price-cost_avg)/cost_avg ), 2) - rn * 500 as v_make_money, -- 赚了多少钱 c1-start_c1 as keep_days -- 持有天数 from ( select c1, c5 as price, avg(c5) over w as cost_avg, min(c1) over w as start_c1, row_number() over w as rn from his where c1 >= '2014-10-01' -- 从2014-10-01开始投入, 你可以随意选择投入开始日期 -- 经济越低迷的时候股价越低, 从那时开始投入是比较好的. -- 如果你的投入周期足够长, 可以从任意时间开始投入, 总会遇到可以收割的时候. window w as (order by c1 range between UNBOUNDED PRECEDING and CURRENT ROW) ) t order by c1;
结果如下:
日期, 当前价格, 成本价, 年化收益率, 总投入, 股票价值, 赚了多少, 持有天数 c1 | price | round | revenue_year_ratio | invest | v_value | v_make_money | keep_days ------------+---------+----------+--------------------+--------+------------+--------------+----------- 2014-10-08 | 160.73 | 160.7300 | 0.00 | 500 | 500.00 | 0.00 | 0 2014-10-09 | 160.01 | 160.3700 | -40.97 | 1000 | 997.76 | -2.24 | 1 2014-10-10 | 159.02 | 159.9200 | -68.47 | 1500 | 1491.56 | -8.44 | 2 2014-10-13 | 156.1 | 158.9650 | -109.64 | 2000 | 1963.95 | -36.05 | 5 2014-10-14 | 154.91 | 158.1540 | -106.95 | 2500 | 2448.72 | -51.28 | 6 2014-10-15 | 157.32 | 158.0150 | -20.07 | 3000 | 2986.81 | -13.19 | 7 2014-10-16 | 157.32 | 157.9157 | -15.30 | 3500 | 3486.80 | -13.20 | 8 2014-10-17 | 158.38 | 157.9738 | 9.39 | 4000 | 4010.29 | 10.29 | 9 2014-10-20 | 156.92 | 157.8567 | -16.66 | 4500 | 4473.30 | -26.70 | 12 .... 2022-08-17 | 1918.0 | 921.1272 | 13.76 | 958500 | 1995818.89 | 1037318.89 | 2870 2022-08-18 | 1895.5 | 921.6352 | 13.43 | 959000 | 1972347.12 | 1013347.12 | 2871 2022-08-19 | 1895.01 | 922.1424 | 13.40 | 959500 | 1971780.14 | 1012280.14 | 2872 2022-08-22 | 1893.98 | 922.6486 | 13.36 | 960000 | 1970653.66 | 1010653.66 | 2875 2022-08-23 | 1870.01 | 923.1417 | 13.01 | 960500 | 1945686.70 | 985186.70 | 2876 2022-08-24 | 1854.2 | 923.6262 | 12.78 | 961000 | 1929228.81 | 968228.81 | 2877 2022-08-25 | 1885.0 | 924.1261 | 13.18 | 961500 | 1961233.98 | 999733.98 | 2878 2022-08-26 | 1898.0 | 924.6323 | 13.34 | 962000 | 1974705.04 | 1012705.04 | 2879 2022-08-29 | 1878.82 | 925.1279 | 13.05 | 962500 | 1954718.00 | 992218.00 | 2882 2022-08-30 | 1870.0 | 925.6185 | 12.91 | 963000 | 1945520.68 | 982520.68 | 2883 2022-08-31 | 1924.0 | 926.1366 | 13.63 | 963500 | 2001620.41 | 1038120.41 | 2884 2022-09-01 | 1880.89 | 926.6318 | 13.02 | 964000 | 1956740.40 | 992740.40 | 2885 (1928 rows)
最高收益时: 持有2317天, 年化收益率43.77%, 投入77.55万, 赚了215.5万.
select c1, -- 日期 price, -- 当前价 round(cost_avg,4), -- 成本价 round(100 * ((price-cost_avg)/cost_avg) / ((c1-start_c1+1)/365.0), 2) as revenue_year_ratio, -- 年化收益率 rn * 500 as invest, -- 截止当前总投入. (假设每个交易日投入500) round(rn * 500 * (1+ (price-cost_avg)/cost_avg ), 2) as v_value, -- 当前持有股票的价值 round(rn * 500 * (1+ (price-cost_avg)/cost_avg ), 2) - rn * 500 as v_make_money, -- 赚了多少钱 c1-start_c1 as keep_days -- 持有天数 from ( select c1, c5 as price, avg(c5) over w as cost_avg, min(c1) over w as start_c1, row_number() over w as rn from his where c1 >= '2014-10-01' -- 从2014-10-01开始投入, 你可以随意选择投入开始日期 -- 经济越低迷的时候股价越低, 从那时开始投入是比较好的. -- 如果你的投入周期足够长, 可以从任意时间开始投入, 总会遇到可以收割的时候. window w as (order by c1 range between UNBOUNDED PRECEDING and CURRENT ROW) ) t order by round(rn * 500 * (1+ (price-cost_avg)/cost_avg ), 2) - rn * 500 desc limit 1; c1 | price | round | revenue_year_ratio | invest | v_value | v_make_money | keep_days ------------+--------+----------+--------------------+--------+------------+--------------+----------- 2021-02-10 | 2601.0 | 688.1936 | 43.77 | 775500 | 2930970.87 | 2155470.87 | 2317 (1 row)
附上另外两只比较糟糕的股票的数据, 现在已经跌破发行价了, 虽然如此, 巴菲特投资理念依旧成立.
- 600619 | 海立股份
2015-10-27 | 11.22 | 10.8041 | 3.65 | 101000 | 104888.35 | 3888.35 | 384 2015-10-28 | 11.69 | 10.8084 | 7.71 | 101500 | 109778.73 | 8278.73 | 385 2015-10-29 | 12.86 | 10.8185 | 17.80 | 102000 | 121248.08 | 19248.08 | 386 2015-10-30 | 12.44 | 10.8264 | 14.02 | 102500 | 117777.02 | 15277.02 | 387 2015-11-02 | 12.09 | 10.8325 | 10.84 | 103000 | 114956.59 | 11956.59 | 390 2015-11-03 | 12.39 | 10.8400 | 13.31 | 103500 | 118298.83 | 14798.83 | 391 2015-11-04 | 12.88 | 10.8499 | 17.38 | 104000 | 123459.71 | 19459.71 | 392 2015-11-05 | 12.88 | 10.8596 | 17.24 | 104500 | 123942.30 | 19442.30 | 393 2015-11-06 | 13.39 | 10.8716 | 21.41 | 105000 | 129322.96 | 24322.96 | 394 2015-11-09 | 14.25 | 10.8876 | 28.32 | 105500 | 138081.01 | 32581.01 | 397 2015-11-10 | 14.69 | 10.9056 | 31.74 | 106000 | 142783.97 | 36783.97 | 398 2015-11-11 | 15.15 | 10.9255 | 35.28 | 106500 | 147679.84 | 41179.84 | 399 2015-11-12 | 14.81 | 10.9436 | 32.16 | 107000 | 144802.76 | 37802.76 | 400 ... 2015-12-08 | 15.4 | 11.2300 | 31.74 | 116000 | 159074.52 | 43074.52 | 426 2015-12-09 | 15.09 | 11.2465 | 29.14 | 116500 | 156313.64 | 39813.64 | 427 2015-12-10 | 15.2 | 11.2634 | 29.74 | 117000 | 157891.67 | 40891.67 | 428 2015-12-11 | 15.06 | 11.2796 | 28.45 | 117500 | 156880.92 | 39380.92 | 429 2015-12-14 | 15.28 | 11.2965 | 29.73 | 118000 | 159610.14 | 41610.14 | 432 2015-12-15 | 15.41 | 11.3139 | 30.45 | 118500 | 161402.16 | 42902.16 | 433 2015-12-16 | 15.68 | 11.3322 | 32.19 | 119000 | 164656.07 | 45656.07 | 434 2015-12-17 | 15.83 | 11.3510 | 33.03 | 119500 | 166652.92 | 47152.92 | 435 2015-12-18 | 15.84 | 11.3698 | 32.84 | 120000 | 167180.46 | 47180.46 | 436 2015-12-21 | 16.55 | 11.3912 | 37.57 | 120500 | 175070.86 | 54570.86 | 439 2015-12-22 | 17.03 | 11.4145 | 40.72 | 121000 | 180526.68 | 59526.68 | 440
c1 | price | round | revenue_year_ratio | invest | v_value | v_make_money | keep_days ------------+-------+---------+--------------------+--------+-----------+--------------+----------- 2017-09-26 | 17.22 | 12.1651 | 13.98 | 328500 | 465000.50 | 136500.50 | 1084 (1 row)
- 600719 | ST热电
2015-11-06 | 14.57 | 9.5301 | 48.87 | 65500 | 100139.28 | 34639.28 | 394 2015-11-09 | 14.32 | 9.5664 | 45.57 | 66000 | 98796.16 | 32796.16 | 397 2015-11-10 | 14.17 | 9.6010 | 43.53 | 66500 | 98146.78 | 31646.78 | 398 2015-11-11 | 14.46 | 9.6372 | 45.66 | 67000 | 100528.79 | 33528.79 | 399 2015-11-12 | 14.14 | 9.6706 | 42.07 | 67500 | 98696.12 | 31196.12 | 400 2015-11-13 | 13.44 | 9.6983 | 35.03 | 68000 | 94234.99 | 26234.99 | 401 2015-11-16 | 14.16 | 9.7309 | 41.02 | 68500 | 99678.59 | 31178.59 | 404 2015-11-17 | 14.28 | 9.7638 | 41.58 | 69000 | 100915.21 | 31915.21 | 405 2015-11-18 | 14.7 | 9.7994 | 44.85 | 69500 | 104256.89 | 34756.89 | 406 2015-11-19 | 15.0 | 9.8365 | 46.96 | 70000 | 106745.29 | 36745.29 | 407 2015-11-20 | 16.11 | 9.8810 | 56.26 | 70500 | 114943.41 | 44443.41 | 408 2015-11-23 | 15.9 | 9.9234 | 53.36 | 71000 | 113761.64 | 42761.64 | 411 2015-11-24 | 15.31 | 9.9610 | 47.46 | 71500 | 109894.55 | 38394.55 | 412 2015-11-25 | 16.2 | 10.0044 | 54.60 | 72000 | 116588.99 | 44588.99 | 413 2015-11-26 | 16.19 | 10.0470 | 53.78 | 72500 | 116828.01 | 44328.01 | 414 2015-11-27 | 15.22 | 10.0825 | 44.71 | 73000 | 110197.25 | 37197.25 | 415 ... 2017-04-06 | 10.18 | 8.3120 | 8.99 | 237500 | 290875.38 | 53375.38 | 911 2017-04-07 | 10.02 | 8.3156 | 8.19 | 238000 | 286782.60 | 48782.60 | 912 2017-04-10 | 10.18 | 8.3195 | 8.91 | 238500 | 291836.89 | 53336.89 | 915 2017-04-11 | 10.05 | 8.3231 | 8.26 | 239000 | 288588.52 | 49588.52 | 916 2017-04-12 | 9.62 | 8.3258 | 6.18 | 239500 | 276728.84 | 37228.84 | 917 2017-04-13 | 9.67 | 8.3286 | 6.40 | 240000 | 278654.14 | 38654.14 | 918 2017-04-14 | 9.41 | 8.3309 | 5.14 | 240500 | 271653.47 | 31153.47 | 919 2017-04-17 | 9.47 | 8.3332 | 5.39 | 241000 | 273876.26 | 32876.26 | 922 2017-04-18 | 9.3 | 8.3352 | 4.57 | 241500 | 269453.08 | 27953.08 | 923 2017-04-19 | 8.9 | 8.3364 | 2.67 | 242000 | 258361.41 | 16361.41 | 924 2017-04-20 | 8.7 | 8.3371 | 1.72 | 242500 | 253054.59 | 10554.59 | 925
c1 | price | round | revenue_year_ratio | invest | v_value | v_make_money | keep_days ------------+-------+--------+--------------------+--------+-----------+--------------+----------- 2017-04-06 | 10.18 | 8.3120 | 8.99 | 237500 | 290875.38 | 53375.38 | 911 (1 row)
思考一下保险公司的很多投资型保险理财产品是靠什么盈利的? 例如每年投一两万, 连续投20年, 然后...年化利息大概3左右, 同时有一些大病保险赔款(基本上就是不死也残的那种).
附录: 一键部署 PolarDB
安装docker环境, 参考:
一键部署 PolarDB, 参考:
随便选一种(单节点实例、多节点实例、HTAP 实例)进行部署, 例如:
HTAP 实例
# 拉取 HTAP PolarDB 镜像 docker pull polardb/polardb_pg_local_instance:htap # 创建运行并进入容器 docker run -it --cap-add=SYS_PTRACE --privileged=true --name polardb_pg_htap polardb/polardb_pg_local_instance:htap bash # 测试实例可用性 psql -h 127.0.0.1 -c 'select version();' version -------------------------------- PostgreSQL 11.9 (POLARDB 11.9) (1 row)
退出容器后, 如何再次进入容器?
IT-C02YW2EFLVDL:~ digoal$ docker ps -a CONTAINER ID IMAGE COMMAND CREATED STATUS PORTS NAMES dd43b032b95e polardb/polardb_pg_local_instance:htap "/bin/sh -c '~/tmp_b…" 7 minutes ago Exited (1) 3 minutes ago polardb_pg_htap IT-C02YW2EFLVDL:~ digoal$ docker start dd43b032b95e dd43b032b95e
IT-C02YW2EFLVDL:~ digoal$ docker exec -it dd43b032b95e bash [postgres@dd43b032b95e ~]$ psql -h 127.0.0.1 psql (11.9) Type "help" for help. postgres=# \q
其他参考docker --help
列出容器
IT-C02YW2EFLVDL:~ digoal$ docker ps -a CONTAINER ID IMAGE COMMAND CREATED STATUS PORTS NAMES dd43b032b95e polardb/polardb_pg_local_instance:htap "/bin/sh -c '~/tmp_b…" 8 minutes ago Up 2 seconds polardb_pg_htap
停止容器
docker stop ... stop Stop one or more running containers
删除容器
docker rm ... rm Remove one or more containers docker rm dd43b032b95e
列出镜像
docker images images List images IT-C02YW2EFLVDL:~ digoal$ docker images REPOSITORY TAG IMAGE ID CREATED SIZE polardb/polardb_pg_local_instance htap a05bfc3b1310 3 weeks ago 11.5GB polardbx/galaxyengine latest 6c7171b141d6 2 months ago 2.11GB polardbx/galaxysql latest 1a9a92c774dc 2 months ago 1.14GB polardbx/galaxycdc latest a7b7d468cd34 2 months ago 905MB polardbx/xstore-tools latest d89e74573646 3 months ago 2.69MB polardbx/polardbx-init latest b3637901782a 3 months ago 6.59MB
删除镜像
docker rmi ... rmi Remove one or more images IT-C02YW2EFLVDL:~ digoal$ docker rmi 6c7171b141d6 Untagged: polardbx/galaxyengine:latest Untagged: polardbx/galaxyengine@sha256:135530a3848fec0663555decf6d40de4b9b6288e59f0ce9f8fafc88103ee4b53 Deleted: sha256:6c7171b141d689c4f2cb85bec056e8efa281f7d0c13d5f6ec8786fdfe0b2dacc Deleted: sha256:eb01d41966798251e6cf87030021b9430e39be92152d1b699b862ce7ffd392b6 Deleted: sha256:d3d01e57b3ff262d299d2fc86ee4e6243464aace5f0bb127529ec0b7cf36bcc1 Deleted: sha256:48292444284d3251871963192eb99ff82e3929af68426b43edf7bfc4dae1580d Deleted: sha256:6ca882a31a79adbdf39412feee05487de45617f70711389b94145eb1475b2146
