2022小美赛D题Whether Wildlife Trade Should Be Banned for a Long Time野生动物贸易是否应该被长期禁止思路分享
点击链接【2022小美赛数学建模思路分享】：https://jq.qq.com/?_wv=1027&k=pYYvA9gJ
点击链接【2022小美赛数学建模思路分享】：https://jq.qq.com/?_wv=1027&k=pYYvA9gJ
点击链接【2022小美赛数学建模思思路分享】：https://jq.qq.com/?_wv=1027&k=pYYvA9gJ
2022小美赛D题Whether Wildlife Trade Should Be Banned for a Long Time
Wild-animal markets are the suspected origin of the current outbreak and the
2002 SARS outbreak, And eating wild meat is thought to have been a source
of the Ebola virus in Africa. Chinas top law-making body has permanently
tightened rules on trading wildlife in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak,
which is thought to have originated in a wild-animal market in Wuhan. Some
scientists speculate that the emergency measure will be lifted once the outbreak
ends.
How the trade in wildlife products should be regulated in the long term?
Some researchers want a total ban on wildlife trade, without exceptions, whereas
others say sustainable trade of some animals is possible and benefificial for peo
ple who rely on it for their livelihoods. Banning wild meat consumption could
cost the Chinese economy 50 billion yuan (US $ 7.1 billion) and put one mil
lion people out of a job, according to estimates from the non-profifit Society of
Entrepreneurs and Ecology in Beijing.
A team led by Shi Zheng-Li and Cui Jie of the Wuhan Institute of Virology
in China, chasing the origin of the deadly SARS virus, have fifinally found their
smoking gun in 2017. In a remote cave in Yunnan province, virologists have
identifified a single population of horseshoe bats that harbours virus strains with
all the genetic building blocks of the one that jumped to humans in 2002, killing
almost 800 people around the world. The killer strain could easily have arisen
from such a bat population, the researchers report in PLoS Pathogens on 30
November, 2017. Another outstanding question is how a virus from bats in
Yunnan could travel to animals and humans around 1,000 kilometres away in
Guangdong, without causing any suspected cases in Yunnan itself. Wildlife
trade is the answer. Although wild animals are cooked at high temperature
when eating, some viruses are diffiffifficult to survive, humans may come into contact
with animal secretions in the wildlife market. They warn that the ingredients
are in place for a similar disease to emerge again.
Wildlife trade has many negative effffects, with the most important ones being:
1Figure 1: Masked palm civets sold in markets in China were linked to the SARS
outbreak in 2002.Credit: Matthew Maran/NPL
• Decline and extinction of populations
• Introduction of invasive species
• Spread of new diseases to humans
We use the CITES trade database as source for my data. This database
contains more than 20 million records of trade and is openly accessible. The
appendix is the data on mammal trade from 1990 to 2021, and the complete
database can also be obtained through the following link:
https://caiyun.139.com/m/i?0F5CKACoDDpEJ
Requirements Your team are asked to build reasonable mathematical mod
els, analyze the data, and solve the following problems:
\1. Which wildlife groups and species are traded the most (in terms of live
animals taken from the wild)?
\2. What are the main purposes for trade of these animals?
\3. How has the trade changed over the past two decades (2003-2022)?
\4. Whether the wildlife trade is related to the epidemic situation of major
infectious diseases?
\25. Do you agree with banning on wildlife trade for a long time? Whether it
will have a great impact on the economy and society, and why?
\6. Write a letter to the relevant departments of the US government to explain
your views and policy suggestions.
野生动物市场被怀疑是当前疫情和2002年SARS爆发的源头，食用野生肉类被认
为是非洲埃博拉病毒的来源。在冠状病毒爆发后，中国最高立法机构永久收紧了对
野生动物贸易的规定。据信，冠状病毒爆发起源于武汉的一个野生动物市场。一些
科学家推测，一旦疫情结束，该紧急措施将会被取消。
野生动物产品的贸易？一些研究人员希望完全禁止野生动物贸易，没有例外，
而另一些人则说，一些动物的可持续贸易是可能的，而且对那些依赖它们维持生计
的人有益。据位于北京的非营利性企业家与生态协会估计，禁止野生肉类消费可能
会使中国经济损失500亿元人民币（约合71亿美元），并使100万人失业。
由中国武汉病毒学研究所的史郑丽和崔杰领导的一个团队，追踪致命的SARS病
毒的起源，终于在2017年找到了确凿的证据。在云南省的一个偏远的洞穴里，病毒
学家鉴定了一群马蹄蝙蝠，这些蝙蝠的毒株是2002年感染人类的病毒，造成全世界
近800人死亡。研究人员于2017年11月30日在《公共科学图书馆》病原体杂志上报
告称，杀手毒株很容易从这样的蝙蝠种群中产生。另一个悬而未决的问题是，云南
蝙蝠的病毒如何传播到1000公里以外的动物和人类，而不会在云南造成任何疑似病
例。野生动物贸易就是答案。虽然野生动物在进食时是在高温下煮熟的，但有些病
毒很难存活，但人类可能会接触到野生动物市场上的动物分泌物。他们警告说，这
些成分已经会导致类似的疾病再次出现。
野生动物贸易有许多负面影响，其中最重要的影响是：2
图1：在中国市场销售的蒙面棕榈树果子狸与2002年的非典爆发有关。学分：马修
·玛兰/NPL
种群数量的减少和灭绝
入侵物种的引进
将新的疾病传播给人类
我们使用公约贸易数据库作为我的数据来源。这个数据库包含了超过2000万份
贸易记录，并且可以公开访问。附录为1990年至2021年的哺乳动物贸易数据，完整
的数据库也可通过以下链接获得：
https://caiyun.139.com/m/i?0F5CKACoDDpEJ
要求您的团队建立合理的数学模型，分析数据，并解决以下问题：
1 . 哪些野生动物群体和物种交易最多（就野生的活动物而言）？
2.这些动物的贸易的主要目的是什么？
3.在过去的二十年里（
2003-2022年），贸易发生了什么变化？
4 . 野生动物贸易是否与重大传染病的疫情情况有关？5 . 你同意长时间禁止野生动物贸易吗？它是否会对经济和社会产生巨大的影响
，为什么？
6.写信给美国政府的相关部门，解释你的观点和政策建议。
