是否全球变暖？2022亚太建模C题是否全球变暖思路分析
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2022亚太建模思路分享：297310168
2022年亚太地区数学建模大赛
问题C
是否全球变暖？
加拿大的49.6°C创造了地球北纬50°以上地区的气温新纪录，一周内数百人死于
高温；美国加利福尼亚州死亡谷是54.4°C，这是有史以来地球上记录的最高温度；科
威特53.5°C，甚至在阳光下超过70多个°C，在中东的许多国家超过50多个°C。
图1。北美地区的高温。
自今年以来，我们已经看到了大量惊人的温度报告。地球正在燃烧的事实是毫无
疑问的。在6月底到7月初这些地区出现可怕的高温之后，意大利再次创下欧洲气温纪
录，达到惊人的48.8°C，许多国家宣布意大利处于高温状态
紧急事件
全球气候变暖是一种与自然有关的现象。这是由于温室效应的持续积累，导致地
球大气系统吸收和释放的能量不平衡，以及能量在地球大气系统中的不断积累，导致
温度上升和全球气候变暖。
12
在工业革命之前，二氧化碳(CO2)在大气中一直在百万分之280（
ppm）左右。CO的
浓度22004年3月，大气中达到了377.7 ppm，导致了当时10年的最大平均增长。[1]根
据美国国家海洋和大气管理局（
NOAA）和斯克里普斯海洋研究所（
SIO）的科学家称，
每月平均CO2浓度水平在2022年5月达到421 ppm。[2]的一个经济合作与发展组织（
OEC
D）的报告预测了一个CO2到2050年，该水平为685 ppm。[3]
APMCM组委会已经要求您的团队解决当前报告和未来全球温度水平的预测。他们提
供了数据集2022_APMCM_C_Data。csv，其中包含239177条记录，以协助您的研究。
要求
1.你同意有关全球气温的说法吗？使用2022_APMCM_C_Data。附件中的csv和其他
您的团队收集的数据集，以分析全球温度变化。
a)你同意2022年3月全球气温的上升导致了比过去10年期间更大的上升吗？为什么
或为什么不呢？
b)根据历史数据，请建立两个或两个以上的数学模型来描述过去，并预测未来的
全球温度水平。
c)使用1个(b)中的每个模型来分别预测2050年和2100年的全球气温。你们的模型
是否同意2050年或2100年全球观测点的平均温度将达到20.00°C的预测？如果
不是在2050年或2100年，那么您的预测模型中的观测点的平均温度何时会达到
20.00°C？
d)你认为1(b)的模型最准确？为什么
2.影响温度变化的原因是什么？
a)使用问题1的结果和附件2022_ APMCM_C_ Data中的数据。csv和您的团队收集的
其他数据集，建立一个数学模型来分析全球温度、时间和位置之间的关系（如果有的
话），并解释这种关系或证明它们之间没有关系。
b)请收集相关数据，分析自然灾害的因素（如火山爆发、森林火灾、COVID-19等
）。这对全球温度有什么影响吗？
2022亚太建模思路分享：2973101682022亚太建模思路分享：297310168
c)你认为影响全球温度变化的主要原因是什么？
d)你认为有什么措施来遏制或减缓全球变暖吗？
3.准备一篇非技术性的文章（最多1页），请写一篇非技术性的文章
文章（最多1页）给APMCM组委会，解释你的团队的发现和对未来的建议。
您的PDF解决方案总共不超过25页，应该包括：
l一页汇总表。
l目录。
l你的完整解决方案。
l.有一页纸的非技术性文章。
注：APMCM竞赛的页面限制版数为25页。您提交的所有方面都达到了25页的限制（摘要
表，目录，文章）。但是，参考文献列表和附录的页面并不受限制。
附件：
2022_APMCM_C_Data.csv
数据来源：伯克利地球数据页面http://berkeleyearth.org/data/
参考文献
[1]美国国家海洋和大气管理局。美国国家海洋和大气管理局地球系统研究实验室。
(2022年10月）。大气中二氧化碳的变化趋势。
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/data.html
[2]美国国家海洋和大气管理局。NOAA的研究新闻和专题。(2022年6月3日）。现在的
二氧化碳比工业化前的水平高出50%以上。https://www.noaa.gov/news
release/carbon-dioxide-now-more-than-50-higher-thanpre-industrial-levels.
[3]经济合作与发展组织。(2012).经合组织对2050年的环境展望。
https://www.oecd.org/env/cc/Outlook%20to%202050_Climate%20Change%20Chapter_
HIGLIGHTS-FINA-8pager-UPDATED%20NOV2012.pdf .
3
1
Problem C
Global Warming OR Not?
Canada's 49.6 °C has set a new temperature record for regions above 50 °N of the earth,
and hundreds of people died of heat within a week; Death Valley, California, USA, is 54.4 °C,
which is the highest temperature ever recorded on the earth; Kuwait 53.5 °C, even more than
70 °C under direct sunlight, and more than 50 °C in many countries in the Middle East.
Figure 1. The high temperature in North American.
Since this year, we have seen a large amount of amazing temperature reports. The reality
that the earth is burning is beyond doubt. Following the terrible high temperature in these
regions from the end of June to the beginning of July, Italy once again set a European
temperature record, reaching an astonishing 48.8 °C, and many countries declared a state of
emergency.
Global climate warming is a phenomenon related to nature. It is due to the continuous
accumulation of greenhouse effect, which leads to the imbalance of energy absorbed and
emitted by the earth atmosphere system, and the continuous accumulation of energy in the earth
atmosphere system, leading to temperature rise and global climate warming.
2022 Asia and Pacific Mathematical Contest in Modeling2
Prior to the Industrial Revolution, carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere was
consistently around 280 parts per million (ppm). The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere
reached 377.7 ppm in March of 2004, resulting in the largest 10-year average increase up to
that time.[1] According to scientists from National Oceanographic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) and Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO) the monthly mean CO2
concentration level peaked at 421 ppm in May 2022.[2] An Organisation for Economic Co
Operations and Development (OECD) report predicts a CO2 level of 685 ppm by 2050.[3]
The APMCM organizing committee has asked your team to address these claims of the
current reported and future predictions of global temperature levels. They provided data set
2022_APMCM_C_Data.csv which contains 239177 records to assist in your research.
Requirements
1. Do you agree with the claims of global temperature? Use
2022_APMCM_C_Data.csv in the attachment and other datasets your team collects to analyze
global temperature changes.
a) Do you agree that the increase of global temperature in March 2022 resulted in a larger
increase than observed over any previous 10-year period? Why or why not?
b) Based on the historical data, please build two or more mathematical models to
describe the past and predict the future global temperature level.
c) Use each of your models in 1(b) to predict global temperatures in 2050 and 2100,
respectively. Do any of your models agree with the prediction that the average global
temperature of observation points in 2050 or 2100 will reach 20.00 °C? If not in 2050
or 2100, when will the average temperature of observation points in your prediction
models reach 20.00 °C?
d) Which model you built in 1(b) do you consider most accurate? Why?
2. What are the reasons that affect the temperature change?
a) Use the results of question 1 and the data in the attachment 2022_ APMCM_C_ Data.csv
and other datasets collected by your team, build a mathematical model to analyze the
relationship (if any) between global temperature, time and location, and explain the relationship
or prove that there is no relationship between them.
b) Please collect relevant data and analyze the factors of natural disasters (such as volcanic
eruptions, forest fires and the COVID-19). Is there any impact on global temperature?3
c) What do you think is the main reason that affects the global temperature change?
d) Do you think there are some measures to curb or slow down global warming?
3. Prepare a non-technical article (1 page maximum) Please write a non-technical
article (1 page at most) to the APMCM organizing committee, explaining your team's findings
and suggestions for the future.
Your PDF solution of no more than 25 total pages should include:
l One-page Summary Sheet.
l Table of Contents.
l Your complete solution.
l One-page non-technical Article.
Note: The APMCM Contest has a 25-page limit. All aspects of your submission count toward
the 25-page limit (Summary Sheet, Table of Contents, Article). However, the pages of
Reference List and Appendices are not limited.
Attachment:
2022_APMCM_C_Data.csv
Data Source: Berkeley Earth data page http://berkeleyearth.org/data/
References:
[1] National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. NOAA Earth System Research
Laboratory. (2022, October). Trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide [Internet].
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/data.html
[2] National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. NOAA Research News &
Features. (2022, June 3). Carbon dioxide now mare than 50% higher than pre-industrial levels
[Internet].https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/carbon-dioxide-now-more-than-50-higher-than
pre-industrial-levels.
[3] Organisation for Economic Co-Operations and Development. (2012). The OECD
environmental outlook to 2050 [Internet].
https://www.oecd.org/env/cc/Outlook%20to%202050_Climate%20Change%20Chapter_HIG
LIGHTS-FINA-8pager-UPDATED%20NOV2012.pdf.
